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  • The president has the support of more than 50% of the electorate, according to the polls.
  • He faces multiple challenges in the second half of his term, especially after the Republican victory in the November legislative elections.
  • The House of Representatives approves this Wednesday a measure that could serve to revoke the health reform.
  • Obama must defend some of his achievements, lower the unemployment rate and fulfill pending electoral promises such as the closure of Guantánamo.

 reaches on Thursday the middle of his term encouraged by a recovery in popularity but with many questions about the future. And it is two years since almost two million people went to the Mall of Washington to witness the investiture of the first black president in the US.

The White House has acknowledged that the closure of Guantánamo “will take a while” Obama lives the anniversary in a sweet moment among the electorate. The polls suggest that it has managed to overcome the key 50% popularity barrier, something it has not achieved for months. In part, this recovery is due to the approval last December in Congress of a series of measures, such as the nuclear disarmament treaty with Russia START or an agreement to extend tax cuts , in which it sought, and succeeded, the support of the republican opposition. But in this boom of the president’s popularity has also played a role in the response to the shooting of Tucson on day 8, which killed six people and fourteen were injured, including Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords. Obama went to a tribute service to the victims in which he delivered an emotional speech and called the union , not the divisions.

The tenant of the White House continues to maintain the great ideals of the campaign, although without the expected results . The Nobel Peace Prize in 2010 faces multiple challenges in the second half of his term, especially after the Republican victory in the legislative elections last November. The long-awaited health reform, the “jewel in the crown” of its electoral program, has been the first to suffer a setback, although symbolic, this Wednesday. The House of Representatives, under Republican control since those elections, has approved a measure that would dismantle the reform of the health system, amid allegations that its revocation will be a “disaster” for the economy.

This revocation , on the contrary, has no prospects to get ahead, since the Democrats still control the Senate and Obama has announced that he would veto it if he came to his office to enact it, it does indicate an indication of what the Republican strategy will foreseeably be for the next two years: of denying the president any achievement. Both the White House and the Republicans are clear that the electoral campaign for the 2012 elections begins already this year.

If Obama were to face Sara Palin today he would win with 56% of the votes Another of the promises of the president that is about to materialize is the relative to the closing of as recently recognized the spokesman of the presidency, Robert Gibbs , “it will still take a while” . Yes, it has carried out, nevertheless, the announced educational reform , which put an end to the role of private banks in the credit for federally insured student loans and has doubled the amount of scholarships awarded each year, doubling their previous funding.

In international matters , the action of the US Government has been the withdrawal of the last US combat troops in Iraq and a greater military presence in Afghanistan . Likewise, Obama has reiterated his commitment to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, acting as mediator between the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu , and the President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmud Abás , with the objective of reactivating the peace dialogue in the region. . Also noteworthy is the signing of an agreement with Russia to replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty of 1991, with a new pact to reduce the number of long-range nuclear weapons in the arsenals of both countries by more or less a third.

Your next ‘tests’

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The next litmus test that the president will face will take place next week, when on Tuesday he will deliver, before the plenary of the two Houses of Congress, his annual speech on the State of the Union, in which he will expose his legislative priorities for this year. After that, the president must convince with his budget proposal for the next fiscal year. On that subject a hard battle with the republicans is anticipated, that based good part of the campaign with which they gained the legislative ones of November in promises of fiscal austerity and of cut of the enormous budgetary deficit , superior to the 1.3 trillions of dollars.

Obama is carrying out a deep restructuring of his team To face these challenges, Obama is carrying out a profound restructuring of his team , where he has already appointed a new chief of staff, businessman William Daley , and a new economic adviser, Gene Sperling .

To be held today, the president would beat the Republican Mitt Romney with 51% of the vote, compared to 38% would get the former governor of Masachusets, while if he faced Mike Huckabee would also be imposed by 50-31% of the votes. If her rival were Sarah Palin, Obama would leave even better unemployed, with 56% of the votes, while the former governor of Alaska would get 30%, 10 points less than what the polls granted a month ago.

To be presented with a second term, Obama must comply with a series of basic requirements such as a reduction in the unemployment rate, achieve the support of independent voters and maintain support for his administration above 50%. Your new team will have to strengthen ties with the business world and collaborate with Republicans to maintain the ‘Obama brand’. And the president will have to remind the citizens why they went to the Mall on a cold January morning two years ago.